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This article describes forces that affect oil prices in general. For specific commodities, see the articles on Light Crude Prices, Brent Crude Prices, Heating Oil Prices, or Gasoline Prices. Few inputs impact the world economy like the price of oil. Oil powers cars, trucks, boats, airplanes, and even power plants that make up the backbone of the global economy. As oil prices rise, costs go up for transportation companies, squeezing their profit margins and forcing them to raise prices, similarly affecting all the other companies that rely on them to transport products and people. By contrast, most energy companies benefit from higher oil prices, either from higher revenues for oil, or because of increased demand for substitute energy sources such as ethanol and natural gas. On July 3rd, 2008, crude oil futures reached a record high of $145.85[1]; by contrast, oil cost less than $20 a barrel in 2000[2] and averaged $72 per barrel in 2007.[3] As prices shoot through the roof, interest is piqued in issues like peak oil, speculation, and the world's rising energy appetite. [edit] PricesLight sweet crude oil futures (US$/barrel) with a December, 2008 delivery date: Brent crude oil futures (US$/barrel) with a December, 2008 delivery date: Heating oil futures (US$/gallon) with a December, 2008 delivery date. RBOB Gasoline futures (US$/gal) with a December, 2008 delivery date. [edit] Who Benefits from Rising Oil Prices
[edit] Who Loses from Rising Oil PricesRising oil prices pose challenges for many companies as well as consumers, which is why rising oil prices are often seen as damaging to the economy.
[edit] Crude Oil ClassificationsOil is generally classified based on its weight and sulfur content Weight
Sulfur Content
[edit] Crude Oil Benchmark BlendsCrude oil is priced in terms of regional blends, each with different characteristics. Of these, certain blends are followed by traders, as they most reflect the overall value of oil, and therefore affect the way different blends are priced. These are essentially like a Consumer Price Index for different types of oil. There are about 161 different types of crude that are traded around the world; the four primary benchmarks, of which these are priced internationally, are Brent Crude, West Texas Intermediate, Dubai, and the OPEC Basket.[19]
[edit] Spot Prices versus Futures PricesSpot prices are the prices paid for oil here and now - as in, the amount of money you would hand a producer in exchange for their tossing a barrel of oil into the back of your truck. Futures prices, on the other hand, are the prices paid for contracts promising the delivery of oil at a future date. Whether or not the prices of oil futures affect spot prices is one of energy economics' most prevalent modern debates. Moreover, there really is no "true" spot market for oil, in the sense of that there is a "true" spot market for stock or other financial assets.[citation needed] A "true" spot market requires, as described above, the actual physical transfer of the goods, to the purchaser, directly at the time of purchase, and there simply are no large scale sellers of crude oil, that operate in such a fashion. The "spot" prices that are quoted, involve the transfer of 1000 barrels of crude oil, not one or two.[citation needed] That would require literally 5 of 6 tractor-trailer rigs to carry off back to your house: the transportation costs would approach the value of the oil itself.[citation needed] When one speaks of a "spot" price for crude oil, one is meaning the current trading price, of the next future contract that will come due. Those that claim that futures prices (and, therefore, speculation) do not affect spot prices argue that people who purchase futures contracts do not actually purchase any real oil. When a fund purchases a futures contract and that contract comes due, it must sell the oil to someone who will actually use it, because that fund has no way of actually keeping the physical product. This means the oil must come to market - no matter what the price. If a firm buys a $150/barrel futures contract in June for July and the spot price in July is $140, the firm must buy the oil at $140, and then it MUST sell the oil at $140 as well, because it can't actually hold the oil. This means there is no accumulation of oil - firms can't hoard oil, so they can't actually affect the present market. Therefore, it is argued, the prices of futures contracts have no affect on spot prices. Those that believe futures speculation has an effect on spot prices (at least, those with a sound understanding of economics) argue that when oil futures are traded, oil purchasers, like refiners, try to buy oil at prices that will benefit their margins in both the short and long term. If it is believed that oil prices will rise in the future (indicated by futures prices being higher than present prices), purchasers will want to stock up on oil at lower prices today and put it in inventory; this drives up demand for crude in the present, forcing oil prices up in the present. Thus, it is argued, high prices for oil futures leads to high prices for oil in the present. [edit] Analysis of Events Affecting Oil Prices
[edit] Why Oil Prices Rise or Fall[edit] Demand Growth Forces Prices UpDemand for oil, as well as demand for energy in general, is closely tied to the global economic cycle. In periods of economic growth, new factories consume energy, shipping companies transport more goods and consumers take more trips. This demand for energy—or even news suggesting the economy is heating up—pushes up energy prices. For example, the five major central banks announced in December 2007 that they would pump money into the world economy to help mitigate the possibility of a recession; immediately, the price of oil jumped over $4 at speculation that energy demand would increase.[34] Conversely, during periods of economic contraction such as recessions, demand for oil and other types of energy tends to fall, leading to reductions in price. In China, for example, manufacturing fell during July and August 2008, and oil prices followed.[35] [edit] The Recent Drop In Oil Prices Due To Demand DestructionDemand destruction - primarily in the U.S. - is likely responsible for most of the drop in oil prices that occured during the third quarter of 2008[36]. In the first quarter of 2008, trucking industry analyst Donald Broughton estimated that 42,000 trucks, over 2% of the United States' fleet, came off the nation's highways. With nearly 1,000 trucking companies filing for bankruptcy, the demand for diesel fuel has been slashed. [edit] Supply Shocks[edit] Production CutsThe global oil supply is dependent on the ability of oil companies to produce and the willingness of oil-exporting countries to export. Historically, periods of oil price spikes have been caused by oil-exporting countries placing embargoes on certain countries. In 1973, for example, the world's largest oil cartel, OPEC, placed an embargo on oil exports to the Netherlands and the United States, in response to the countries' support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War; the price of oil acquired by refiners increased by approximately 100%, and the U.S. experienced widespread shortages.[37] In 2007, however, despite a 57% increase in prices, the amount of oil exported by the world's top exporters fell 2.5%. Demand for oil in the world's six largest exporters (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar) increased by more than 300,000 barrels, while their exports fell by over half a million barrels.[38] In this case, growing demand in each company acted as a natural embargo, forcing them to meet their own needs before exporting to the rest of the world. [edit] Violence Against ProducersSince then, oil prices have been volatile because of geopolitical events affecting the ability of upstream oil companies to produce. Terrorist and political attacks can damage drilling rigs or the transportation and refining networks -- including pipelines, shipping facilities, and refineries -- that bring oil from where it is extracted to the consumer. During the spring of 2008, for example, Nigerian rebels initiated attacks on the oil majors' pipelines and deepwater drilling rigs in the country. Despite the fact that OPEC's lead producer, Saudi Arabia, announced it would increase production by 2%, a rebel attack on one of Shell's deepwater rigs sent prices to $136.[39] [edit] WeatherStrong hurricane seasons can damage offshore oil platforms, reducing the amount of oil produced. Supply can also be artificially reduced or increased by government taxes or subsidies on oil production. [edit] Transportation BottlenecksWhen there are problems with the pipelines that transport oil, it can't get to market; this effectively reduces the supply of crude oil to the world's refiners, causing the supply of refined products to fall. When supplies fall, prices rise. On March 28th, 2008, the day after the bombing of one of Iraq's primary export charges, Brent crude rose on the London exchange by $1.01.[40] [edit] Peak Oil and Declining ProductionPeak oil theory presents an idea on how the declining supply of oil, a non-renewable resource, will affect its price over time. Since oil is a limited resource that takes millions of years to form, when we extract it from the ground, its supply constantly declines without being replenished. Peak oil theory states that as reserve extraction approaches a halfway point, production increases, and at the halfway point, prices are lowest and production volumes are highest. Once the halfway point has been passed, production begins to fall and prices begin to rise. Many analysts believe oil production is at or past peak oil already, since prices are now at record highs and, for the first time since 2002, global oil production fell.[41] Even OPEC production is thought to be declining; satellite photos of Saudi Arabian oilfields show more pressure-pumping (an expensive way to get oil out of the bottom of a maturing well) occurring in the last year, indicating that the country is working much harder to keep production up.[42] Theories that opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and offshore drilling sites in the U.S. to development would alleviate gasoline prices are misguided; Jim Sweeney, director of the Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency at Stanford University, says that offshore U.S. reserves would account for just 1% of worldwide consumption, but wouldn't be productive for 10-15 years.[43] [edit] U.S. Dollar Value Fluctuations Cause Positive Feedback on the Price of OilThe United States imports much of its oil, and that oil is purchased abroad in U.S. dollars. The price of oil, in fact, is pegged to the dollar. The changing value of the dollar in comparison to other currencies impacts the price paid by end users. A strong dollar means a lower price, in dollars, for oil, and a weak dollar means more dollars must be spent to purchase the same amount of oil. Currency fluctuations are complex (for a more complete discussion see currency fluctuations) but the value of a currency is impacted by the relative value of goods imported and exported by an economy (known as the trade balance), its interest rates, the size of its national debt, and its economic growth. As the U.S. economy sinks further into recession, the U.S. currency continues to depreciate, causing the recession to compound the rise in oil prices. [edit] SpeculationSome analysts believe that oil prices are at record highs because of speculation about the future value of oil. Specifically, these analysts claim that the belief that oil supply is lower than it is and the belief that future oil supply will be just as low has led traders to inflate the prices of oil futures. When oil futures are traded, oil purchasers, like refiners, try to buy oil at prices that will benefit their margins in both the short and long term. If it is believed that oil prices will rise in the future (indicated by futures prices being higher than present prices), purchasers will want to stock up on oil at lower prices today and put it in inventory; this drives up demand for crude in the present, forcing oil prices up in the present. Thus, high prices for oil futures leads to high prices for oil in the present. OPEC, believes that record fuel prices are not a function of supply and demand, but a function of Western government policy and rampant speculation, and has used this belief as an excuse not to raise production by the amounts demanded by the West.[44] While much of the data shows that production has been slowing, it's likely that speculation could account for some of the present price spikes. When oil prices closed at record highs for five days in a row during the week of May 5th, 2008, a House of Representatives committee announced an investigation regarding the role of hedge funds and investment banks in pushing up prices. In June 2008, the U.S. commodities futures regulator announced new rules requiring daily large trader reports, and position and accountability limits for foreign crude contracts traded in the U.S.[45] Many who believe soaring oil prices are the result of currency fluctuations or market speculation also believe that the current oil market is a "bubble", and that events like decreases in oil demand in certain countries or the strengthening of the U.S. dollar will cause oil prices to crash. The truth in this remains to be seen.
[edit] Negative Feedback on Rising Prices Offsets Some of the IncreasesRising oil prices can force major purchasers of oil to turn to other fuel types. The U.S. Military, for example, in May of 2008 tested a jet that broke the sound barrier using synthetic fuel. The military is the largest single consumer of oil in the U.S., at 1.5% the country's total, and rising oil prices drove the Defense Department's energy bill up 25% in the last year. Since estimates state that commercial-scale synthetic-fuel refineries could sell the fuel at just $55 a barrel, the military is now pushing away from oil - which could actually drive oil prices down.[46] The Chinese government has also been forced to act on rising global oil prices. On June 20th, China announced that it had raised diesel prices by 18% and gasoline prices by 16%; oil prices on world futures markets immediately fell by $4, as higher prices in China will lead to decreased demand in China, thereby leading to decreased world demand.[47] Even regular consumers forced by soaring fuel prices to change their habits, turning to gas-efficient cars or simply driving less; gasoline demand in the U.S. fell at the beginning of June 2008 by 3.8% from the year before, while consumption fell 1.9%.[48]
[edit] Ways To Invest in OilStock investors can buy or short-sell oil-related ETFs. Two of the most traded ETFs are USO and OIL. Also consider DCR, UCR and DUG. [edit] References
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