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In 2007, the Spanish wind manufacturer Gamesa sold enough contracts to completely commit its entire production capacity - for the next two and a half years. Though Gamesa was originally a more diversified renewable energy company, it recently sold off its solar arm, allowing it to focus exclusively on developing wind technology. Gamesa's market share of 16% makes the company one of the world's largest developers of wind technology; in the last 18 months, the company built four production plants in the U.S., three in China, and two in Spain, increasing its exposure to several high-growth wind markets.

At $800 per kilowatt, the installation cost of large wind farms rivals those of traditional gas and coal plants. Because of this, the wind market has gained a cost advantage over other renewables. Gamesa, however, may be forfeiting this advantage by not producing turbines with capacities above 2 MW, while competitors like Vestas and Enercon produce turbines over twice as large.

Despite the economic viability of wind energy, however, it cannot hold up in the face of coal, which is available for continuous power generation, while wind is only available 20-30% of the time[1] . For this reason, Gamesa's expansion in the U.S. and China may yield limited results: both are among the top three coal exporters and consumers in the world. Currently, however, public opinion is on Gamesa's side, and legislative mandates for increased renewable energy use have led to subsidies that give wind an economic advantage. Gamesa competes with other wind developers like Vestas, Suzlon, General Electric, Enercon, and Siemens.

Contents

[edit] Business and Financials

Gamesa produces small-to-medium sized turbines with capacities between 850 kW and 2 MW. The smaller turbines are ideal for high-wind regions, while the mid-size turbines can generate even from weak gusts. The company also builds wind farms with its turbines. In 2007, Gamesa's sold contracts for wind generators and farms totaling around 8,000 MW - twice the firm's entire production capacity. This backlog means that for the next 2.5 years, the company's production capacity is fully committed, though it has nine manufacturing facilities in construction to increase future capacity.

Gamesa Financial Data (€ Million)
2007 2006
Sales 2,401 3,274
Capitalized In House Work 47 49
Net Profit 220 200

In 2007, 44% of Gamesa's turbine sales came from Spain, 23% came from the U.S., 15% came from China, 13% came from the rest of the world, and 5% came from the rest of the world. 42% of the company's 2007 wind farm installations occurred in Spain, 25% occurred in the U.S., 17% occurred in Germany, 12% occurred in Italy, and 4% occurred in France and Portugal.

The vast majority of Gamesa's earnings come from the manufacture and sale of turbines

In February of 2008, Gamesa sold its solar segment to First Reserve Corporation for €261 million, allowing the company to get rid of €53 million in debt. Though the solar segment brought in 5% of the company's 2007 EBITDA, by selling it Gamesa can turn its R&D efforts away from effectively competing in a fast-growing, highly competitive market to developing within a market in which it is already entrenched: wind.

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] Gamesa is Focusing its Expansion on Three Growing Markets: Europe, China, and the U.S.

In the last year-and-a-half, Gamesa has started nine new production facilities: four in the U.S., three in China, two in Spain[3]. Of the 20,073 MW of wind generators installed worldwide in 2007, 26% was installed in the U.S., 17.5% was installed in Spain, and 17.2% was installed in China[4]; three countries made up 61% of the company's revenue. Gamesa hopes to expand its production in these three regions, where wind growth has taken off. There are, however, pros and cons to all three:

  • The United States: The U.S. saw the highest growth in wind turbine installations in 2007, due to legislative support for renewable energy in twenty-six states. The U.S. is, however, one of the three largest coal exporters and consumers in the world, and is home to three of the six oil majors. With fossil fuels so firmly entrenched in the American economic and political sphere, it will be difficult for wind to gain long-term support from the federal government or, for that matter, any of the coal states.
  • Spain: Spain receives 9% of its electricity from wind energy, with room to grow[5]. Furthermore, Gamesa supplies over half of Spain's installed capacity[6]. Spain's energy use is dwarfed by countries like the U.S. and China, however, making it far less lucrative, though producing in Spain gives the company the ability to sell throughout Europe.
  • China: Though China's growing energy demand as well as its large share of the wind market in 2007 make it appear to be an ideal location for growth, a number of smaller wind companies have emerged out of the country's woodwork to steal market share from the industry's big boys. One in particular, China High Speed Transmission Equipment, is publicly traded in Hong Kong and has 90% of the Chinese market for wind power transmissions[7]. Furthermore, China is among the top three coal exporters and producers, and, unlike the U.S., has very weak environmental regulations. This drops the installation cost of a coal plant to $1000 per kilowatt[8]; when considering that the Chinese state supports the use of internal resources over those financed internationally, Gamesa's expansion in the country seems much riskier.

[edit] Wind Energy is the Most Economically Competitive Form of Renewable Energy

As one of the top turbine manufacturers, Gamesa is well-positioned to take advantage of wind's economic strengths. Wind turbines have the lowest installation costs of any of the renewables, especially with large wind installations, which take advantage of economies of scale to reach lows of $800 per kilowatt installed[9]. Small wind farms and individual turbines can cost up to $3,500 per KW installed[10], which is a bit higher than the average geothermal plant, at $2500 per kilowatt installed[11], but still less expensive than the $8,000 per kilowatt installed[12] associated with photovoltaics. Wind farms also have the capacity to generate much more electricity than geothermal or solar installations. Wind rivals natural gas ($1200 - $1600 per kilowatt installed[13]) and is much less expensive than a coal plant that has all the emissions retrofittings ($2,200 - $3,700 per kilowatt installed[14], though gas and coal plants generally take up much less land than wind farms with equivalent capacities, and are available continuously, while wind is only available 20-30% of the time.[15]

[edit] Gamesa's Smaller Turbine Sizes Make it Less Likely to Supply for Large Wind Farms

The cost difference between a large wind farm and a small one can be up to $2,700 per kilowatt hour installed[16]. This is because larger farms tend to use larger turbines, which have economies of scale: for example, moving from a 150kW turbine to a 600kW turbine (4x increase) makes the price triple, rather than quadruple. Gamesa's largest turbine is 2 MW. Compared to competitors like Vestas Wind Systems and Enercon, who both produce 4.5 MW turbines, Gamesa's turbines will be less appealing to electric utilities and other energy companies trying to build large-scale, cost-efficient wind farms. If Gamesa itself is contracted to build the wind farm, however, the company will be able to cut down on value-added and transportation costs, making its turbines more appealing.

[edit] Renewable Energy Legislation Gives Wind Companies like Gamesa a Strong Cost Advantage

Thus far, governments have been major drivers of the wind industry. There has been much legislation recently passed that supports wind development:

  • Renewable Portfolio Standards that set varying targets for the amount of energy to be obtained from renewable sources by certain dates have been enacted by 24 states plus D.C.[17]
  • The European Union has stated that its goal is to get 22% of its energy from clean sources by 2010.
  • China passed a Renewable Energy Law aiming to raise the total percentage of renewable energy used in the country to 10% by 2020.

These renewable energy standards are all supported through tax breaks and subsidies, both for installers and buyers. In the U.S., for example, a subsidy worth 63% of the capital cost of renewables (like wind) is active through 2008, and is expected to be extended further[18]. With wind energy already far cheaper than alternatives like solar, a 63% subsidy would drop a large wind farm to $500 per kilowatt installed - nearly three times cheaper than a gas power plant. This cost advantage would give electric utilities a strong incentive to invest in wind turbines; companies like Xcel Energy have already started to enter the field. As one of the top five wind companies, Gamesa has seen and will continue to see benefits from legislative support of its technology.

[edit] Gamesa's Sale of its Solar Unit Reduces its Exposure to a Highly Competitive Market

On February 28th, 2008, Gamesa agreed to accept €261 million from First Reserve Corporation, a private equity firm, for its solar power division, Gamesa Solar. Though Gamesa Solar was the largest solar company in the highly competitive Spanish solar market[19], the recent, explosive growth of entrants into the solar market means that Gamesa's international expansion would have been difficult. With companies like SunPower reaching record high efficiencies and First Solar reaching record low costs, while Chinese market entrants like Suntech, Solarfun, and JA Solar use cheap labor and a low-regulation environment to boost margins, Gamesa would have to spend large amounts of money on research and development in order to effectively compete. The solar segment had margins of 9%, stronger than the company's turbines section but weaker than its wind farm segment; however, its earnings made up only 5% of Gamesa's EBITDA, making it a relatively inefficient investment. Meanwhile, the company is already well established in the wind market; its sale of its solar segment simply allows it to cut down debt and focus on gaining market share in its primary market.

[edit] Competition

Gamesa's turbines make up over half of Spain's installed wind capacity, and the company itself holds 16% of the world wind market[20].

  • Suzlon Energy Limited - By acquiring REpower and taking advantage of global wind opportunities, India's strongest wind entrant has captured a global market share of 14%[21].
  • Vestas - Vestas estimated that its worldwide market share fell from 28% to 23% in 2007, primarily because of the entry of Chinese competitors into the wind market[22]. Nonetheless, the company remains the largest wind turbine and system manufacturer in the world.
  • General Electric Company (GE) - In 2006, GE held 15.5% of the world market[23], and is currently the largest American supplier of wind turbines.
  • Nordex - With turbines in over 33 countries and offices in 18, Nordex is trying to expand its 2006 market share of 3.4% through international development[24].
  • Siemens - Siemens Wind owns 8-9% of the international wind market, though the electronics company wants to expand its annual production to 4,500 MW (enough to give it 15%)[25].
  • Enercon - A privately held wind firm, Enercon makes the most powerful wind turbine in the world, and owned 15.4% of the world market in 2006[26].
Wind Turbine Power Capacity
Manufacturer <500kW 500-800kW 800kW-1MW 1-1.3MW 1.3-1.5MW 1.5-2.5MW >2.5MW
Suzlon Energy Limited 350kW 600kW 950kW/1MW 1.25MW 1.5MW 2MW/2.1MW -
Nordex - - - 1.3MW 1.5MW 2.3MW/2.5MW -
Siemens - - - 1.3MW - 2.3MW 3.6MW
Enercon 330kW 800kW 1MW - - 2MW 4.5MW
Gamesa - - 850kW 1.3MW - 2MW -
General Electric Wind - - - - 1.5MW 2.5MW 3.6MW
Vestas - - 850kW - 1.5MW 2MW 3MW/4.5MW




[edit] Notes

  1. Ocean Power Technologies Inc. Presentation to U.S. Senate, May 30th, 2001
  2. Gamesa 2007 Results Presentation, Slide 5
  3. Gamesa News: "Gamesa ends 2007 with sales growth of 36% and net profit of €220 million"
  4. Gamesa 2007 Results Presentation, Slide 9
  5. "Energy companies make wind power a top investment"
  6. HotStocked.com: "Wind Power and Gamesa Corporation: 2007 in Review, 2008 in Expectations"
  7. Maria Energia: "Chinese Wind Power Company Plans IPO"
  8. Gristmill Post by GreyFlcn, July 19th 2007
  9. http://www.telosnet.com/wind/future.html
  10. California Energy Commission: Economics of Owning and Operating DER Technologies"
  11. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy: Geothermal FAQ
  12. http://www.wind-works.org/Solar/SolarPVCurrentInstalledPricesperkWinCaliforniaElsewhere.html
  13. http://www.memagazine.org/mepower03/bbuster/bbuster.html
  14. Gristmill Post by GreyFlcn, July 19th 2007
  15. Ocean Power Technologies Inc. Presentation to U.S. Senate, May 30th, 2001
  16. California Energy Commission: Economics of Owning and Operating DER Technologies"
  17. Descriptions of State Renewable Portfolio Standards
  18. http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Report/geothermalenergy.html
  19. Gamesa News: "Gamesa sells its solar unit to first reserve for 261 million euros"
  20. HotStocked.com: "Wind Power and Gamesa Corporation: 2007 in Review, 2008 in Expectations"
  21. "FT: Suzlon Sizzling"
  22. Vestas 2007 Annual Report
  23. www.btm.dk/documents/pressrelease.pdf
  24. www.btm.dk/documents/pressrelease.pdf
  25. "Siemens AG's Siemens Wind Power to Set Up Wind Turbine Plant in China-DJ"
  26. www.btm.dk/documents/pressrelease.pdf
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