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WIKI ANALYSIS
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Royal Dutch Shell Company (NYSE:RDSA - ADR) (LON: RDSA) (Shell) is one of the largest private sector energy companies in the world. The company is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas, refining and marketing of liquefied natural gas as well as manufacturing, marketing, and shipping of oil products and petrochemicals. The company also deals in renewable/alternative sources of energy including wind and solar energy. It operates primarily in Europe and the US.
That the company is in all stages of the supply chain enables it to reduce its costs. The company’s refineries sell their end product to retail consumers, which enables it to earn higher revenues and improve profitability, as the commissions paid to middlemen in the supply chain are eliminated. This gives Shell an advantage over competitors like Valero Energy (VLO), which do not have exploration and production businesses.
In 2008 Shell's crude oil and natural gas proved reserves were 1.5 billion barrels.[1] However, its oil and natural gas reserves have been declining for the last three to four years owing to competition from public companies, operations in politically unstable regions, damages from natural disasters, and, possibly, the advent of peak oil. Sustaining long-term growth will be a challenge for the company if its reserves continue to decline. This decline assumes especial significance in the face of competition from rivals such as ConocoPhillips, whose oil reserves have increased since 2004.
Even though Shell is a large company, it faces intense competition from national or state-owned public companies. These large national oil companies are backed by their home governments and exercise greater control over access to oil and gas reserves, which makes it difficult for private companies such as Shell to access these reserves.
Shell operates in countries, such as Nigeria, which are experiencing social and political unrest, thus exposing the company to the risk of political instability. The company had to close four of its plants in Nigeria to ensure the safety of its employees; as a result, its production in Nigeria declined by 90 percent.
Damage caused to the refineries by natural disasters (such as hurricanes – Katrina and Rita) is an additional problem that the company needs to confront from time to time. For example, oil production as well as refining in its exploration platforms and refineries situated in the Gulf of Mexico had to be ceased during hurricane Katrina.
Company DescriptionShell is one of the largest of the "oil majors", a group of giant, vertically integrated oil and gas companies that dominate the hydrocarbon market and include Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Total, BP, and ChevronTexaco.
Revenue for the third quarter of 2009 increased by 15% to $75 billion, as compared to the previous quarter. Earnings were $3.3 billion, down 62% as compared to the third quarter of 2008. Earnings were negatively impacted by lower gas and oil prices, as well as lower refinery margins. Oil and gas production was almost unchanged as compared to the same time in 2008 at 2,926 thousand boe/d, new field start-ups offset declines in developed fields. LNG sales volumes were 13% as compared to the same period to 3.49 million tonnes.[2]
Second quarter 2009 revenue was up 9% as compared to the previous quarter to $63.9 billion. Gross profit was down 5.6% to $8.5 billion and total production fell by 13% as compared to the first quarter of 2009, to 2,882 thousand boe/day.[3][4] The drop in production was primarily due to security situations in Nigeria, divestments and production sharing contracts pricing effects.[5] Earnings were down due to weak demand, excess capacity in the market and high industry costs.[6]
In the first quarter of 2009 revenues were $58.2 billion down 28% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. However, gross profit was up to $9 billion due to a decrease in the cost of sales of 36% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. The decrease in revenue was attributed to lower oil and gas prices, lower production volumes and increased exploration costs.[7] Total production was almost unchanged as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008 of 3,321 thousand boe/day.[8]
At the end of 2008 revenue was $458.4 billion an increase of 22% as compared to 2007. However, earnings were down by 17% due mainly to declining oil prices on inventory in the second half of the year, lower production volume, a decrease in refining margins and higher operating costs. Hydrocarbon production was 3,248 thousand boe.[9]
The company has made a series of acquisitions to increase its size and expand its operations across different regions. On September 21st, 2007, the company announced that its Motiva Enterprises sector would spend $7 billion jointly with Saudi Arabia to expand a Port Arthur refinery to, by 2010, have an output of 600,000 barrels per day (b/d) and be the largest oil refinery in the U.S. In the first quarter of 2008, the company spent $2.1 billion while bidding on over 270 blocks of reserves in the Chukchi Field off the Alaskan coast.
Shell Works to Develop Gas to Liquid Fuel (GTL)
Gas to liquids fuel is a synthetic fuel made from natural gas that typically comes from stranded natural gas deposits. It is made using a process called Fischer Tropsch synthesis and can be used on its own or as a blend with diesel.[11]
Trials have shown that cars using 100% GTL fuel emit 25-40% fewer particulates and 40-85% less carbon monoxide than standard diesel fuel.[12]
Shell has been working on GTL technology for over 30 years and has demonstrated its value in various areas blended with diesel and 100% concentration. Shell built the world's first GTL plant in 1993 which produces 15,000 barrels a day and is currently building the world's largest GTL plant in Qatar with Qatar Petroleum.[12]
At the end of October 2009 Qatar Airways flew an Airbus 340-800 airplane between London and Doha using a blend of kerosene and GTL from Shell in a 50-50 mixture. It was part of an experimental flight with GTL in an effort for Airbus to to have 30% of jet fuel from clean alternatives by 2030.[12]
Shell Increasing its Portfolio in Liquefied Natural GasIn September of 2009 Shell agreed to a joint venture with ExxonMobil and Chevron to construct a liquefied natural gas facility on Barrow Island off the coast of Australia. Chevron will own 50% of the facility while Shell and Exxon will each have 25%. The facility will almost double Australia's liquefied natural gas output with an annual capacity of 15 million tonnes per year. Shell has already signed a 20 year deal with PetroChina to buy two million tonnes per year of LNG directly from the facility.[13]
Chevron already has interest in the facility from suppliers in Japan and Korea. It has already agreed to supply 3 million tons per year of LNG to Osaka Gas, Tokyo Gas and GS Caltex from Korea. Additionally Chevron has finalized a 15 year deal with Kora Gas to provide 1.5 million tons per year.[14]
Losses at Kashagan Oil Fields in the Caspian Sea Shell has seen major losses in the Kazakhstan-controlled Kashagan oil fields, as massive delays and overspending have sunk the company, along with project partners ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, TotalFinaElf, Eni, and [[Ipex]. The Kazakh government is now demanding compensation for damages to its property, and appears to have consulted U.S. attorneys on how best to induce the companies to pay up; so far, a total of $19 billion among the companies have been sunk into the project. In the first quarter of 2008, Shell agreed to reduce its stake in the project by 1.7%, selling its shares to KazMunaiGas in order to ensure that the Kazakh government would let it continue to operate in the region. The other project parters were forced into similar arrangements.
Business Segments/ProductsThe main business divisions of the company include exploration and production, gas and power, oil sands, oil products, and chemicals. Shell offers a wide range of products, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), electricity, gasoline, low-sulphur diesel, lead replacement fuel, marine lubricants, chemicals (such as ethylene, propylene, aromatic chemicals, detergent alcohols, and fuel additives), and other fuels.
The operations of the exploration and production segment (also known as upstream activities) are spread over 38 countries. These operations include searching for oil and gas reserves, drilling wells, and extracting crude oil and natural gas to sell on international markets or use for refining. This segment is supported by a research and development center that is responsible for improving the cost efficiency and performance of the company’s exploration and production activities. Shell's oil sands business can be included with exploration and production because the end goal of both are the same: get crude oil. Together, these segments made up 54% of Shell's CCS earnings, totaling $3.04 billion during the second half of 2009. Earnings were impacted by lower oil and gas prices and higher exploration expenses.[15]
The gas and power segment also forms a part of its upstream business. This segment is responsible for transporting natural gas, developing power plants, and marketing gas and electricity on a worldwide scale. The gas and power produced by this segment is primarily used for consumption by industries, business units as well as residential and government consumers. This segment made up 22% of Shell's CCS earnings, totaling $1.2 billion for the second half of 2009.[15]
The company’s downstream oil products business includes the refining and marketing of petroleum products including fuels, lubricants, and petrochemicals. Shell has ownership interests in 46 refineries around the world and manufactures oil and petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, heavy heating oil, lubricant, and bitumen. This segment accounted for 13% of the company's CCS earnings, totaling $745 million in the second half of 2009.[15]
Shell sells its products to both retail as well as business customers. Shell has 45,000 retail gas stations across the world operating under a single brand name. Its products include low-sulphur diesel, lead replacement fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and differentiated fuels (differentiated fuels are tailor-made to meet growing customer needs for improved engine and environmental performance) including Shell Pura, Optimax, V-Power, V-Power Racing, and V-Power Diesel. It has convenience stores at more than 10,000 locations. A range of products including fuels, lubricants, and specialty products are sold to a wide range of business customers through five sub-segments of the company – Shell Aviation, Shell Marine Products, Shell Gas LPG, and Commercial Fuels and Lubricants.
The chemicals segment is part of the company’s downstream business and is mainly involved in producing and marketing petrochemicals. The segment had a loss of $92 million due to impairment charges across the second half of 2009.[15]
Strategy and Expansion As a vertically integrated company, Shell is able to control the entire supply chain, the operational efficiency of the company improves. In addition, owing to its direct access to customers through its retail gas stations, it does not need to pay any commissions to intermediaries; this, in turn, increases the profitability of the company, leading to higher revenues and profit margins.
Shell's current expansion strategy is to eliminate low-potential-growth segments and focus on high-potential sectors and investments. To this end, 3Q07 was a productive one; the company sold a number of facilities in France, Austria, and Australia, and expanded joint operations in Port Arthur and the Pluto LNG fields in Australia. The company is also focusing on expansion in Russia.
Shell is a global company with operations in more than 140 countries. As the company is not dependent on any single market for its revenues, it is not affected by fluctuations in any one of the markets, which results in stable revenues and good margins.Shell is focusing on expanding its refining and marketing operations, specifically in the growing markets of Asia Pacific including Singapore and China. It has become the leading lubricant manufacturing company in China by acquiring one of the largest lubricant manufacturers in the country. The company is also expanding its refining operations in the U.S. by expanding the refining capacity of its center in Port Arthur.
Shell is increasing its capacity to produce natural gas by setting up additional LNG plants in Australia, Malaysia, Brunei, Nigeria, and Oman to take advantage of the increasing demand. The company has set up .
With world energy demand increasing faster than world oil and gas production, Shell is exploring alternative methods of production, including investing $739 million in an Australian coal seam gas project owned by Arrow Energy Ltd. As part of the deal, Shell will also buy 10% of Arrow.
In July, 2008, Shell announced it would acquire the Canadian Duvernay Oil Corp for $5.85 billion - a 42% premium on the company's share price. The deal will give Shell access to Alberta's tar sands, though Devernay's primary production thus far has been natural gas.[16]
Business Drivers
Oil & Natural Gas Prices Fall Although Shell has oil and gas reserves of 3,270 million barrels, declining reserves are a major concern for the company. Shell’s oil reserves have declined continuously over the last few years, from 3,745 million barrels in 2004 to 3,270 million barrels in 2006. Natural gas reserves stood at 25,050 billion cubic feet in 2004 and increased to 30,058 billion cubic feet in 2006. Production has also declined, from 3.473 million boe per day in 2006 to 3.315 million boe per day in 2007[17]b. in 2007 In this scenario, sustained growth will be a challenge for the company. The global economic crisis has reduced demand growth for fossil fuels, pushing down the price of oil and gas. Both declines reduce the company's extraction and refining margins. Shell believes that these price changes are cyclical; the company is betting that prices will shift again, and so is spending in order to prep for future benefits. They are betting that increased demand from developing countries like India, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey, and Indonesia will drive up margins. If decreasing oil margins are a product of decreasing absolute oil reserves, however, these trends might not be cyclical and Shell could face future losses.
| ROYAL DUTCH SHELL | |
|---|---|
| Reserves | |
| Oil and Gas Liquids (Millions of barrels) | 3775[18] |
| Natural Gas (Billions of cubic feet) | 40,895[19] |
| Production | |
| Oil and Gas Liquids (Thousand b/d) | 1,695[18] |
| Natural Gas (Million cf/d) | 8,595[19] |
U.S. to Propose at the G-20 Summit to End Fossil Fuel Subsidies Within Five YearsAt the end of September 2009 the G-20 summit will be held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It has been reported that the U.S. contingent will ask the G-20 to eliminate worldwide fossil fuel subsidies in five years. Currently G20 countries spend $335 billion every year for subsidies on oil, gas and coal.[20] The U.S. will argue that the subsidies distort oil product markets and artificially raise fuel demand. It will also argue for more transparency of oil markets with more timely and accurate information about inventory levels and positions held in future markets.[21] According to the White House's deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs, the elimination of subsidies will also improve energy security and fight climate change through conservation and the freeing up of additional funding for cleaner technologies.[22]
Growing support against fossil fuels may have a negative impact on Shell, especially if there is further support by the G-20. Ending of subsidies will affect all areas of its business, especially in rapidly expanding markets such as India and China, which have currently offset loses due to drops in demand elsewhere in the world.
Higher Oil Prices Strain Refinery Profits As the price of oil increases, companies involved in petroleum refining see their costs skyrocket. Shell, one of the world's largest refiners, currently has this predicament, as its record profits in its upstream segment are being offset by losses in its downstream segment - CCS income for the "Oil Products" segment fell $500 million from 1Q07 to 1Q08. Currently, it is more profitable to be a producer than a refiner, which may explain why Shell has been on a refinery-selling binge; in the first quarter of 2008, the company sold three French refineries with total capacity of 300,000 BPD for $1.8 billion (to be received during the second quarter).
Weather Companies operating in the oil and gas sector face a major threat from hurricanes as the risk of damage to their oil exploration and production infrastructure increases. In 2005, the company’s oil platform located in the Gulf of Mexico ceased production and two of its oil refineries were damaged in the U.S. due to the hurricane Katrina. As a result, the company’s sales and profits were severely affected. A more frequent trend, however, can be viewed in Q3 earnings, as refining margins and revenues are usually lower than in Q2 because of damage to facilities in the Gulf of Mexico region. In 3Q07, however, it should be noted that refining capacity did not decline, though they are expected to for 4Q07.
Shell's Global Reach Exposes it to Regional Instability in Oil production, transportation Political instability is another major threat for oil and gas companies having international operations. Shell has a significant share of its operations in Nigeria, which is experiencing political turmoil due to militant activities. As a result of this, the company had to vacate 4 production facilities in Nigeria to ensure the safety of its employees, cutting production by 400,000 BPD (or 2.25 million BPD). Another attack in on a far offshore rig in June 2008 forced the company to shut down operations in the Bonga field, cutting remaining production by another 225,000 BPD.[23] In November 2008, Royal Dutch Shell shut down its Soku gas plant and declared force majeure on gas supplies to Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd. According to Shell’s Nigerian unit SPDC, a sharp rise in illegal connections and damage from thieves on pipelines to the Soku plant forced SPDC to carry out repairs.The plant supplies close to 40 per cent of its gas to Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas, whose export terminal provides some 10 per cent of world liquefied natural gas supply.[24] In late February 2009, Shell issued a public warning to the Nigerian Government and stated that continued low oil and gas prices along with regional violence will deter very-needed equipment investments from foreign oil companies.[25] That same month, the Nigerian government borrowed $1.69 billion from Shell in order to cover their side of the costs of the Gbaran-Ubie gas project for 2009-11.[26] The outcome of Shell's investments in Nigerian oil production depend on the government's ability to control violence, especially in the Niger Delta region.[27] On March 3, 2009, Shell had to close a number of pipelines located in the Niger Delta due to damage caused by explosions.[28] Over the past three years, violence in the region has reduce Nigeria's oil production by 20%.[29]
Shell is also negotiating with the Iraqi government todevelop natural gas fields in the south of the country; the Iraqi government says it loses $40 million a day because it does not have the ability to export or consume produced gas, but Shells involvement could change this. The Iraq War, however, means Western companies will be in danger of terrorist attack.[30] This is even more pertinent to Shell, who in late September 2008 signed a production sharing deal under which Shell will own 49% of a venture to capture 700 MMcf of natural gas released during oil production.[31] The company is now officially operating in Iraq, which is still rife with sectarian violence.
Shell Often has to Pay Recompense for Environmental Damages Every stage of oil production, refining, and use have aspects that are damaging to the environment. Drilling leads to deforestation and groundwater contamination on land and coastal ecosystem damage offshore, refining leads to chemicals being released into groundwater and harmful fumes being released into the air, and the burning of oil and its products leads to the release of particulate emissions and greenhouse gases into the air. When the environmental damages caused by Shell's operations occur to the extent that they break environmental protection laws, the company is often sued by NGOs or government agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency. These lawsuits are usually settled out of court; on May 7th, 2008, for example, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Marathon Oil, Valero, and Sunoco agreed to pay $423 million in damages for contaminating groundwater with methyl tertiary butyl ether, an oxygenate used to increase octane levels in gasoline that has been replaced in recent years with ethanol. Exxon Mobil, along with five other companies named in the lawsuit, are not settling and will continue to contest.
Shell is getting into Renewable Energy Shell is promoting renewable sources of energy. The company is funding businesses developing on renewable or alternate sources of energy, such as wind and solar power, and is also exploring opportunities in hydrogen and fuel cell technology. It is also researching second-generation biofuels, and investing in biofuels producers. The company has a research partnership with Hawaii-based HR Biopetroleum to develop Algae-produced biofuels. In July 2008, the company announced it had doubled its stake in cellulosic ethanol producer Iogen Energy Corp, to 50%, and is considering funding an ethanol plant to use the Iogen's technology.[32]
In June of 2009 Shell introduced gas blended with biofuel at a gas station in Ottawa, Ontario. The company claims it is the first service station in the world with advanced biofuel made from wheat straw. The gasoline contains 10 percent cellulosic ethanol and was produced by Canadian Iogen Energy Corp. Cellulosic ethanol is reported to produce 90 percent fewer CO2 emissions than compared to regular gasoline. Shell and Iogen have setup a power plant producing 40,000 liters per month, however it is a long way from large scale production for a high consumer base.[33]
Environmental Concerns Limit Shell's Growth Shell was blocked from drilling in ANWR in 2008, and may face opposition to expanded oil sands production in Canada.[34] For the first, concern over potential damage to the local ecosystem, and a resultant loss of game for the local natives, blocked Shell from drilling. For the second, at current technology levels, extracting and processing tar sand into oil releases three to four times as much CO2 as conventional oil extraction.[35]
Competitive LandscapeShell competes with global players Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron, BP (BP), Total S.A., Sunoco, Valero, Petrobras, Eni, LUKOIL, and ConocoPhillips. The table provided below compares the Royal Dutch Shell Company with its competitors for the year 2008.
| CONOCOPHILLIPS | ROYAL DUTCH SHELL | EXXONMOBIL | CHEVRON | BP | LUKOIL(1) | Eni S.p.A(1) | Total S.A. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves | ||||||||
| Oil and Gas Liquids (Millions of barrels) | 5,817[36][37] | 3775[18] | 7,576(2)[38] | 7,350[39] | 10,353[40] | 15,715[41] | 3,219[42] | 5,695[43] |
| Natural Gas (Billions of cubic feet) | 24,948[44] | 40,895[19] | 31,402(2)[38] | 23,075[39] | 45,208[40] | 27,921[45] | 18,090[42] | 26,218[43] |
| Production | ||||||||
| Oil and Gas Liquids (Thousand b/d) | 1,108[46] | 1,695[18] | 2,405[47] | 1,649[48] | 2,401[49] | 1,954[50] | 1,020[42] | 1,456[51] |
| Natural Gas (Million cf/d) | 4,970[46] | 8,595[19] | 9,095[47] | 5,125[48] | 8,334[49] | 1,586[52] | 4,114[42] | 4,837[51] |
(1) Latest data is for 2007 (2) Does not include reserves of equity affiliates
| SUNOCO | CHEVRON | VALERO | EXXON MOBIL | Royal Dutch Shell | SINOPEC | WESTERN REFINING | ConocoPhillips | BP | LUKOIL(1) | Eni S.p.A(1)[53] | Total S.A. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refinery Capacity (Million BPD) | 0.91[54] | 2.139[55] | 2.99[56] | 6.2[57] | 3.678[58] | 3.376[59] | 0.238[60] | 1.986[61] | 2.678[62] | 1.135[63][64] | 0.544 | 2.604[65] |
| Number of Refineries (including partial interests) | 5[66] | 18[55] | 16[67] | 37[57] | 40[68] | 17[69] | 4[70] | 12[61] | 17[62] | 9[71] | N/A | 25[65] |
| Number of Retail Gas Stations | 7,785[72] | 25,000[73][74] | 5,800[67] | 10,516[75] | 45,000[76] | 29,279[77] | 153[78] | 8,340[79] | 22,600[80] | 6,287[81] | 6,441 (in Europe) | 16,425[65] |
(1) Latest data is for 2007
Private companies such as Shell face intense competition from national and state-owned oil and energy companies. Governments of oil-rich countries support these companies and give them access to reserves by stopping direct foreign investment in oil exploration and production projects. In addition, owing to the heavy taxes and restrictions imposed by the government, foreign investment becomes unattractive. Private oil and gas companies such as Shell face problems in gaining access to oil reserves and starting operations in spite of their large size.
Strong oil and gas reserves provide a platform for growth of oil and petroleum companies. However, reserves of Shell have been decreasing continuously over the last few years as the company has been unable to replace its depleting and declining reserves (measured as the reserve replacement ratio, i.e., the rate at which a company replaces its used reserves with new reserves) at a rate higher than that of its competitors. In 2005, the company’s reserve replacement ratio was only 70-80 percent, while its competitors, ConocoPhillips and ChevronTexaco, had average reserve replacement ratios of 100 percent or more.
| Energy Companies Anadarko Petroleum BP ChevronTexaco Arch Coal Cameco ConocoPhillips Enbridge Consolidated Edison Entergy Exelon Exxon Mobil Frontier Oil GE Halliburton Philips Massey Energy Occidental Petroleum PG&E Peabody Energy Shell Sasol Schlumberger Sinopec Suncor Sunoco SunPower Suntech Suzlon Toshiba Valero Xcel |
Global Oil Industry Operational Data | Company | Reserves (MM boe) | Current Years of Production | Oil & Gas Production (1000s boe/d) 2006 | Oil & Gas Production Growth (%) 2006 |
| BP | 17,368 | 10.4 | 3,926 | -1.9 |
| ChevronTexaco | 11,020 | 10.9 | 2,667 | 6.1 |
| ExxonMobil | 21,518 | 11.3 | 4,238 | 3.8 |
| Royal Dutch Shell | 11,108 | 6.7 | 3,474 | -1.0 |
| Hess | 1,243 | 7.9 | 358 | 7.0 |
| BG Group | 2,149 | 6.2 | 601 | 19.0 |
| ConocoPhillips | 6,676 | 8.7 | 2,359 | 29.7 |
| ENI | 6,406 | 11.2 | 1,770 | 5.8 |
| Marathon | 1,262 | 7.1 | 377 | 9.0 |
| Norsk-Hydro | 1,916 | 9.3 | 573 | 2.0 |
| Petro-Canada | 1,301 | 8.4 | 345 | -3.1 |
| Repsol YPF | 2,600 | 5.2 | 1,128 | -3.0 |
| Petrobras | 11,458 | 14.2 | 2,287 | 4.5 |
| CNOOC | 503 | 3.0 | 455 | 11.7 |
| Gazprom | 144,668 | 39.7 | 9,965 | 6.0 |
| LUKOIL | 18,144 | 27.2 | 1,838 | 4.5 |
| PetroChina | 16,260 | 15.6 | 2,907 | 5.0 |
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