Speculation

RECENT NEWS
New York Times  May 25  Comment 
Two recent papers about the domestication of dogs take different approaches: one is data-rich, solid science, the other more speculative and inconclusive, seeking to prompt thought.
Forbes  May 25  Comment 
Speculation about the future of the business empire of Hong Kong billionaire Joseph Lau is building after it was disclosed on Wednesday that he will face bribery and money-laundering charges in Macau.
FX Street  May 21  Comment 
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge to focus more on bolstering growth spurred speculation the... For more information, read our latest forex news and reports.
Mondo Visione  May 18  Comment 
With a view to implementing the requirements of deepening new share issuance system reform of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has carried out a series of supervision measures to prevent the...
Reuters  May 10  Comment 
* To seek legal advice to counter fundraising speculation
Forbes  May 9  Comment 
Avon Products shares spiked today as speculation swirled over whether Coty will make a higher takeover offer.
Mondo Visione  May 9  Comment 
In line with the requirements specified in the “Guidance on Further Deepening the IPO System Reform” by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange continues to explore and argue for the measures for prevention...
Commodity Online  May 2  Comment 
The study titled, The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What have we learned so far?, points out that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is...
WA Business News  Apr 30  Comment 
The Australian dollar is almost a full US cent higher as global markets priced in the possibility that the US central bank could embark on a new round of economic stimulus. At 1700 AEST the Australian dollar was trading at 104.5 US cents, up from...
CNBC  Apr 27  Comment 
Bart Chilton, Commodities Futures Trading Commission commissioner, weighs in on the CFTC rule on speculative commodity trading and the influx of "massive passives" in the markets.




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Speculation

The assumption of risk in anticipation of gain but recognizing a higher than average possibility of loss. The term speculation implies that a business or investment risk can be analyzed and measured, and its distinction from the term Investment is one of degree of risk. It differs from gambling, which is based on random outcomes.[1] There is nothing in the act of speculating or investing that suggests holding times, have anything to do with the difference in the degree of risk separating speculation from investing.

Speculation from 14c., "contemplation, consideration, contemplation, observation, to look at, view" (see scope). Disparaging sense of "mere conjecture" is recorded from 1570s. Meaning "buying and selling in search of profit from rise and fall of market value" is recorded from 1774. [1]

Scope sense of "distance the mind can reach, extent of view" first recorded c.1600. [2]

Investment 1590s, “act of putting on vestments, commercial sense is from 1610s, originally of the finances of the East India Company; general use is from 1740 in the general sense of “conversion of money to property in hopes of profit,” and by 1837 in the sense “amount of money so invested; property viewed as a vehicle for profit.” [3]

What is significant to note is the change from a passive to an active form of use. Specifically from a strict observer to one who contemplates what they observe then further to one who contemplates and acts on what they observe.

With these changes, the word as now commonly used, describes one who observes an object, event, or situation and takes some form of action with regard to the observed, all the while aware they may not know all the facts or factors regarding or affecting that which they observe. E.g. the financial speculator, one who understands and accepts he may not know all the facts or risks involved with a venture, yet chooses to invest his capital in the venture for the possibility of receiving greater capital in return.

References

  1. Barron's ISBN 0-8120-4631-3
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