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Clusterstock
Nov 16
Comment
On Friday I posted a graph showing the historical relationship between housing starts and the unemployment rate (repeated as the 2nd graph below). The graph shows that housing leads the economy both into and out of recessions, and the unemployment...
FX Street
Nov 10
Comment
"Why" many ask, "is the stock market going up when the bond market is telling us the recovery will be tepid? Isn't there a disconnect?" And the answer is that there is, and this week good friend and fishing buddy Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame...
Clusterstock
Nov 3
Comment
Fund manager John Hussman lays out the two schools of thought with respect to our current economy. It's not hard to figure out which camp he falls into.
One possibility, which is clearly the one that Wall Street has subscribed to, is that the...
Canada.com
Oct 30
Comment
Canada’s recession has been much worse than originally believed and may last longer than many forecast, government figures indicated Friday
George Washington's Blog
Oct 28
Comment
Forget the permabears, even Pimco's Bill Gross is now saying a V-shaped recovery is unlikely:
The total bond market yields only 3.5%. To get more than that, high yield, distressed mortgages, and stocks beckon
the investor increasingly...
Business Times - Singapore
Oct 18
Comment
HERE in a nutshell, is the current sentiment when it comes to stock markets: most people hope the rise will continue - and while many brokers, economists and analysts publicly speak of a sharp, V-shaped recovery underpinning markets, they would...
Shocked Investor
Oct 14
Comment
I a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in St. Louis (here), Donald Kohn said that he does not think a V-shaped recovery is the most likely outcome this time around.
With the collapse of the U.S. Dollar, demand for U.S....
Clusterstock
Oct 11
Comment
The recent upturn in house prices from April to July (3.6%) is the sharpest change in direction professor Robert Shiller has ever seen.
It could signal a v-shaped recovery in house prices. Or it could be the "mother of all head fakes," as...
Expected Returns
Oct 9
Comment
David Rosenberg remains one of the few voices of reason in a time of utter irrationality. Yes the market is rallying right now, but the impending resumption of the bear market will wipe out many, many investors. Taken from A "V"- Shaped Recovery....
Clusterstock
Oct 6
Comment
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the recovery. New York Fed President Bill Dudley is concerned about several things, including commercial real estate.
Yes, financial markets are performing better, but on the negative side, unemployment is way...
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TOP CONTRIBUTORS
A V-Shaped economic recession describes the shape of the market's performance. It begins with a steep fall but then quickly find a bottom, turn back around and move immediately higher [1]. It is used to measure employment, GDP and industrial output. Many economists use the V-Shape to forecast and analyze a country's health [2]. A V-shaped recession is always mentioned as the best-case scenario. The recession of 1990 to 1991 and the recession of 2001---both of which only lasted eight months---are considered to be V-shaped recessions.
Check out this video describing V-Shaped recessions to learn more.
Other shapes of recession
References
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