Historical Volatility

RECENT NEWS
Expected Returns  Nov 27  Comment 
As I mentioned in a recent post, there is one thing I was sure of, and that was increased volatility. The debt crisis in Dubai has served as the shock to the system that has brought volatility back, bringing down assets across the board in the...
Metal Bulletin  Nov 27  Comment 
Cobalt metal prices moved down again on Friday as the volatility that has characterised most of this year grabbed the market again
Random Roger's Big Picture  Nov 27  Comment 
Apparently the Dubai Brothers may have trouble making their next interest payment and the initial reactions from many world markets has been bad. Ahem. 24/7 Wall Street provides a tidy recap and links out to some newsier articles for more info...
FX Street  Nov 27  Comment 
The market is taking a breather. Volatility had soared in early hours after the risk trade headed for the exits in thinned liquidity. It is likely to take at least a few days before the implications of the impact of a possible default from Dubai...
FX Street  Nov 27  Comment 
Markets are rattled by Dubai worries This week risk aversion has returned to global financial markets due to concerns regarding the situation in Dubai. Thin liquidity due to US holidays and month-end effects have contributed to rising volatility...
FX Street  Nov 27  Comment 
Euro zone M3 money supply slowed again more than expected in October. The yearly figure slowed from 1.8% Y/Y to 0.3% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for an outcome of 0.8% Y/Y. The less volatile three months’ average stayed unchanged at a...
Agrimoney.com  Nov 27  Comment 
US crops reopen from Thanksgiving in weak form, with the main contracts down 3%, as food commmodities react at last to the volatility in other markets
International Business Times  Nov 27  Comment 
The Australian Dollar opens lower today at 0.9140 after a volatile local session on Thursday.
The Hindu Business Line  Nov 27  Comment 
Pepper futures on Thursday witnessed high volatility and closed marginally higher. Both bull and bear operators were active. Investors were buying spot and selling
Business Times - Singapore  Nov 26  Comment 
STOCKS on the Singapore market fell yesterday ahead of the Hari Raya Haji holiday weekend, capping a week of volatile trading on thin volumes.
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Volatility refers to the tendency of prices to change unexpectedly, usually as a response to new information or changes in demand for the investment. Volatility can be defined an investment's tendency to move up and down in price over the latest n periods.

A security with high volatility has a bigger fluctuations in price compared to a security with low volatility. The more quickly a price changes up and down, the more volatile it is. As such, volatility is often used as a measure of risk.

For example: A stock whose price went up 10% yesterday and went down 25% today is more volatile than a stock which increased 2% in both days.

Historical volatility is calculated by looking at past changes in stock price. The standard deviation of percentage changes in price is used to calculate observed volatility within the considered timeframe.

Historical Volatility, which looks at the past, is distinct from Implied volatility, which represents expectations about future fluctuations in price and is calculated by looking at the prices of options on the underlying investment.

Volatility is also different from Beta, which is a measure of how the stock price reacts to changes in a broad market index, such as the S&P 500.


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